Risk of Ruin and Bet Sizing
A quantitative path on surviving and compounding: why survival comes before edge, the brutal asymmetry of drawdown recovery, why long losing streaks are normal, fixed-fractional versus fixed-dollar bet sizing, what risk of ruin actually depends on, the Kelly criterion and why professionals trade a fraction of it, the hidden danger of correlated positions, expectancy as the single number behind an edge, and how to assemble it all into a personal risk framework.
- Module 1free
The Math of Losing
Why losses dominate the long-run picture: survival as the first constraint, the asymmetry that makes deep drawdowns so hard to recover, and the simple statistics that make long losing streaks unavoidable.
- Module 2free
Sizing to Survive
How bet size decides survival: fixed-fractional versus fixed-dollar risk, what risk of ruin actually depends on, and the Kelly criterion for growth-optimal sizing along with why almost nobody trades the full amount.
- Module 3free
Portfolio and Framework
The risks beyond a single trade and how to govern them: correlation that quietly multiplies your real exposure, expectancy as the number that decides whether any of this matters, and a personal risk framework that ties the math together.